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News
The Fed Was Supposed to Hold Next Week. One Inflation Report Just Put a Hike Back in Play.
3+ day, 16+ hour ago (307+ words) Federal Reserve officials were already heading into next week’s meeting divided over whether inflation had cooled enough to leave rates alone. Thursday’s producer-price report made that decision harder: wholesale prices rose 5.4% from a year earlier in August, and traders pushed…...
The Treasury Market Is Sending A Warning That Weak Economic Data Can’t Fix
5+ day, 58+ min ago (425+ words) Weak economic data is supposed to pull long-term interest rates down. Instead, Treasury yields have been climbing, and Brookings Institution senior fellow Robin Brooks says that reversal is evidence that demand for U.S. government debt is weaker than it looks. That…...
Oil Is Pushing Bond Yields Higher Again, And The Fed Is Back In The Middle
5+ day, 17+ hour ago (616+ words) Brent crude climbed above $98 a barrel Tuesday as tensions between the United States and Iran kept pressure on energy markets, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 4.8%. Stocks had already fallen Monday as the two markets reinforced the same uncomfortable…...
Trump Threatens to Stop Trading With Deficit Countries Unless the Fed Cuts Rates
1+ week, 1+ day ago (483+ words) President Donald Trump responded to an unexpectedly strong August jobs report with an unusual ultimatum for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh: lower interest rates or he could stop trading with countries that run surpluses against the United States. The threat…...
Scott Bessent’s Bond Rally Is Gone. The Market Is Back Where He Started.
1+ week, 5+ day ago (216+ words) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shocked the bond market on Aug. 19 by doubling planned purchases of long-dated government debt, briefly pushing the 30-year Treasury yield sharply lower. Less than two weeks later, the 30-year yield is back above 5.28%, essentially where it…...
Michael Barr Says The Fed Should Raise Rates If Inflation Won’t Cooperate
1+ week, 5+ day ago (500+ words) Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr put a straightforward condition on the Fed’s September decision Tuesday: if inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, policymakers should raise interest rates. “If inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act…...
Scott Bessent Calls It A Bond Buyback. Charlie Bilello Calls It Debt Reshuffling.
2+ week, 5+ day ago (277+ words) “This is debt reshuffling, not debt reduction,” Bilello said. His objection goes directly to the tension inside Bessent's intervention. Treasury wants to improve liquidity and ease pressure at the long end of the yield curve without pretending that buying outstanding…...
Kevin Warsh Wanted The Fed To Say Less. Jackson Hole Is Forcing Him To Say More.
2+ week, 6+ day ago (344+ words) The tension is unusually personal for a central-bank communications dispute. Warsh wants investors to rely less on Fed guidance and more on economic data, but economists and traders aren't merely asking him to predict the next interest-rate decision. They want…...
Scott Bessent Tried to Calm the Bond Market. Bitcoin Had Its Best Week in Three Years.
3+ week, 18+ hour ago (486+ words) Bitcoin surged roughly 23% last week, its best weekly gain in more than three years, while stocks fell, gold gained 5% and the dollar weakened. The remarkable part came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled planned buybacks of longer-dated government bonds: the…...
BofA Says Bessent Needs To Get The 30-Year Treasury Below 5%
3+ week, 3+ day ago (316+ words) Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has put a number on Scott Bessent’s bond-market problem: 5% on the 30-year Treasury yield. If the Treasury secretary’s expanding buyback program can’t push long rates below that threshold, Hartnett expects pressure to spread beyond…...